Could the "Worldwide War on Terror" be ending soon? Or at least downgraded to a couple of hot spots of greatest concern to the U.S. -- the increasingly dangerous border between Afghanistan and Pakistan, the instability of those countries, and the continuing fanaticism of North Korea?
Compared to early 2002, when George Bush declared that the U.S. faced direct threats from an "axis of evil," the world from the U.S. perspective in 2009 is looking like a far more congenial place.
Al Qaeda operatives have dwindled to less than 300 worldwide, according to U.S. intelligence estimates. The hysteria and paranoia after 9/11, that the attacks represented "a clash of civilizations" between West and East, between Judeo-Christian civilization and Islam, have subsided. The fears by many Americans, especially on the right, that "there are no moderate Muslims" now seem completely ignorant and preposterous.
President Obama's diplomatic overtures to Muslims, calling for a "new beginning between the United States and Muslims," is having an effect. His visits to Turkey and Egypt, his magnificent speeches in Ankara and Cairo, and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton's ongoing diplomatic efforts, have led to progress on a number of fronts.
After downright hostility in the Middle East and Europe toward Bush, they've welcomed Obama with open arms. We've seen pro-Western election results in Lebanon, tentative progress in Iraq, and strong yearnings for democracy in Iran.
On NPR's "Fresh Air," Iraqi political analyst Karim Sadjadpour of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace stated that the democracy protests in Iran probably would not have occurred if Barack Hussein Obama had not been elected in the U.S. and if he had not offered an olive branch to Iran after the belligerence of George W. Bush. When Bush was in power, Iranians feared a U.S. invasion and therefore domestic dissidents downplayed their political differences as a matter of national security. Many Iranians were inspired by Obama's election, and decided to use some of the same tools from the Internet to organize opposition to the regime's despotism.
With Obama's encouragement, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has for the first time called for a two-state solution and a Palestinian state.
In part to please Obama, Turkey and Armenia have established a framework to normalize relations after so many years of bitterness over the issue of Armenian "genocide." Indeed, Turkey may be a model for Iran, Iraq, Pakistan and Afghanistan for what a successful, relatively peaceful secular Islamic society can look like.
These positive changes are too tentative to mark history-making progress. By mid-2010, we'll have a better idea if they are mere flashes in the pan or evidence of sea changes spurred by the election of Obama and his refreshing world view.
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