Incumbent Republican Elizabeth Dole, who first won election to the Senate in 2002 with 54 percent of the vote, has a surprisingly competitive race for re-election as Senator from NC. She and her Democratic opponent are virtually tied, according to polls. The conservative Washington Times characterizes Dole's poll ratings as an "embarrassing showing for an incumbent...."
A number of conservative Republicans in North Carolina are grumbling about Dole. "When Senator Helms left office, his excellent mostly North Carolinian staff was mostly willing to go to work for Dole, but she did not want them, assembling a new staff instead, with almost all of her Washington staff being out-of-staters," writes Jeffersonian Republican. "The first problem from this move was that Helms' constitutent service operation, one of the best in Washington, was replaced by a slip-shod lackluster version from Dole. It has also been a problem in policy issues, as Dole's out-of-state staffers don't understand North Carolina politics and often don't even seem to try to do so."
Conservatives like "Jeffersonian Republican" don't like Dole's support of the Warner-Lieberman ''cap and trade'' bill in the Senate. "This wise bill inspired by such great leaders of our sky is falling /manmade global warming movement as Al Gore will give the government a lot more power and cost consumers a lot more for energy...The (conservative) Club for Growth is running ads questioning her wisdom."
Realizing she needs to shore up her conservative base, Dole has already launched an ad campaign, appealing to anti-immigrant sentiment and trumpeting her controversial plan giving sheriffs authority to target, arrest and deport undocumented immigrants who commit crimes. In the ad, several sheriffs speak out in favor of the plan. But some sheriffs say the program has drawbacks, according to the N&O:
Wilson County Sheriff Wayne Gay said the program seemed to unfairly target Hispanics for arrest. "When you start targeting a segment of society, and not looking at anyone else, that's when I have a problem," Gay said.
Pitt County Sheriff Mac Manning said most illegal immigrants in his county obey the law and value family and hard work. Manning advocated a path to legal residency for some, such as a woman in Pitt County who has two children and works in a "menial" housekeeping job that he said most Americans wouldn't want.
Dole's opponent, State Senator Kay Hagan (D-Guilford) calls the program a "Band-Aid" solution that uses local money to solve a federal problem and creates a patchwork of inconsistent enforcement. "We need an overall immigration policy that works," Hagan told the N&O. "We need a policy that is uniform throughout the country." She says she favors securing the borders and deporting criminals but acknowledges the need for foreign workers.
Dole retorts that Hagan favors "amnesty for illegals." But Dole seems to have no realistic long-term solution to the problem. There is no chance that 12 million undocumented immigrants are all going to be deported. Dole's rigid position seems far more inflexible than what presumed Republican nominee John McCain and President Bush have supported. Dole is counting on resentment of North Carolina citizens toward undocumented immigrants.
If Hagan could persuade Republican-leaning business voters that Dole's position or lack of position on immigration will hurt the state's economy, and that she doesn't really offer a viable long-term solution, it might be a wedge issue in November for the Democrat. Hagan criticizes Dole for "a lack of leadership" on immigration.
Immigration hardliners think their position is more popular, but they lost ground in 2006. The conservative Wall Street Journal and several Republican leaders have warned members of the GOP that if they don’t take a more generous stand on the issue of immigration, they will spend a decade or more in the political wilderness. Depending on how the issue is framed, most Americans seem to want a path to citizenship for undocumented workers.
Since Dole is running an ad trumpeting her support for a program that doesn't go anywhere near solving the immigration mess, perhaps Hagan could run an ad blaming Dole for being part of the problem, part of the long stalemate, for Washington's failure of leadership on immigration.
For now, Hagan probably needs to focus attention on raising money. After the May primary (which was competitive for her), she had less than $400,000 in the bank, compared to Dole's stash of more than $3 million.
To win, she would probably need to portray Dole as out of touch, not spending enough time in North Carolina. Dole's primary residence for 40 years has been Washington, DC. Dole has spent several years gallivanting around the country raising money for Republican senatorial candidates. Hagan's campaign can ask skeptically what has Dole accomplished as North Carolina's Senior Senator in Washington, or if it's "time for a change."
Presumably, Dole raised the issue of immigration first because she considers it to her advantage to do so. Hagan will probably gain more mileage by emphasizing populist rhetoric on the economy, health care, and the need for change in Washington.
Still, given that Dole won her first race in 2002 against Erskine Bowles with a solid 54 percent of the vote, you'd think this is her race to lose. But that was an off-year election, and she only received 1.2 million votes. The combined Obama-Clinton Democratic primary vote this year was more than 1.5 million votes. If a unified Democratic Party with high general election turnout is campaigning against a factionalized, dispirited Republican Party with low turnout, North Carolina's Senate race could be in play, and Dole's seat could be in jeopardy.
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