At a well-attended Chatham County Democratic Party brunch on Saturday, August 8 at Carolina Meadows Retirement Community outside Chapel Hill (just over the Orange County line in Chatham County), I got a first impression of three potential challengers to Senator Richard Burr (R-NC). He faces a tough re-election in 2010, given that the last Republican incumbent, Elizabeth Dole, went down to a devastating defeat in 2008.
The first hurdles for the challengers, IMHO, are 1) how many "fans" can you attract on Facebook? 2) how much money can you raise? 3) how many groups can you speak to and how many people can you meet?
Burr, as you might expect for an incumbent, has at this very early stage more Facebook fans than his potential challengers: 1,664.
The three who are openly testing the waters are:
- Ken Lewis, an attorney from Durham. He has already raised more than $100,000 and has hired two prominent Democratic political professionals, Joe Trippi and Joyce Fitzpatrick. He has a campaign website, and as of this date, more than 700 "fans" on Facebook.
- Cal Cunningham, an attorney from Winston-Salem, former state senator and Iraq War veteran. He prosecuted crooked defense contractors. He doesn't appear to have a campaign website yet, but he has more than 1032 fans on Facebook.
- Elaine Marshall, NC Secretary of State. She would have to be considered the front-runner due to name recognition and because she has already run a state-wide race. She has had a campaign website, ElaineMarshall.com, for a long time, and is a known entity in Democratic Party circles. But she has only 295 fans on a "Run, Elaine, Run" Facebook page.
I'd say Cunningham and Marshall gave the more energetic speeches at Carolina Meadows. Lewis is finding his sea legs as he introduces himself to audiences, giving a mostly biographical speech. But he may have an advantage if he's able to tap into the civil rights community as his initial base of support. Marshall would hope to follow the path set by now Senator Kay Hagan, appealing initially to Democratic women as her base in the primary. As a more familiar figure, she might also appeal in greater numbers to senior citizens. Cunningham's base is probably Young Democrats -- he is just 35 years old.
It will be interesting to see how the candidates woo important Democratic factions -- educators and members of NCAE, higher education, community college supporters, senior citizens and AARP-NC, the growing tech-savvy Democrats at BlueNC, the labor community, small business and the banking community.
If issues, not just personalities, are the determining factors in this Senate race, the candidates have yet to develop major themes. Burr advocates a "free market" solution to health care problems -- health savings accounts -- which Cunningham and Marshall criticized as inadequate. Burr says the Democratic health care plan will "decimate" the NC economy.
Cunningham criticized Burr for panicking in the nation's financial crisis last fall, by urging his wife to withdraw all their money from the bank and encouraging bank runs. No doubt Burr can expect negative television ads on those topics.
How the overwhelmingly Democratic Congress handles health care reform -- whether it's perceived as a major step forward by independent voters or a "risky scheme" -- could determine the outcome of this Senate race in North Carolina.
Drill Deeper:
- The News and Observer's "Under the Dome" blog covers the 2010 Senate race in depth.
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