Mind-boggling: Republicans and Democrats are spending, combined, $300 million to $400 million, this year to influence and turn out about 10 million targeted "swing voters" in November's presidential election. These swing voters are supposedly concentrated in 18 key states. That's $30 to $40 per swing vote, or $3 to $4 for everyone who votes.
Most of the approximately 100 million voters already lean one way or another, based on past voting patterns. The strategy of each campaign will be to suppress turn-out among the other side's base (through negative advertising), and to inspire turn-out and enthusiasm among potential supporters, through positive advertising, and by generating energy, passion and dedication among volunteers on the ground.
If politics were truly a science, we might be able to predict what will happen next. The "experts" are predicting that the GOP will retain control of the House, as it appears only about 30 House seats this year are COMPETITIVE. This is down from 40 races classified as "competitive" in 2000. Republicans control the Senate by 2 seats (51-49), and control of the House of Representative by 23 seats (228-205). But the experts, in politics at least, are usually wrong. Politics isn't a science, but an art.